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InvestmentsAnalysis-In Japan, a weaker yen may not be the blessing it once...

Analysis-In Japan, a weaker yen may not be the blessing it once was By Reuters



By Tetsushi Kajimoto

TOKYO (Reuters) – A weak yen, once seen as beneficial for Japan’s exports-focused economic system, has now turn into a ache level as it eats into family funds and confounds policymakers.

A gradual shift by Japan’s producers to offshore manufacturing means a weak yen has turn into much less of a boon for native exporters than it was about a decade in the past.

That shift means some at Japan’s finance ministry, which is accountable for foreign money coverage and identified to step in to counter sharp yen rises, are actually paying extra consideration to the downsides of a weaker foreign money, particularly the results of upper import prices.

Putting these issues into focus this week, the greenback hit 115.525 yen, a stage not seen since January 2017, as expectations for increased U.S. rates of interest propped up the buck and Japan’s financial outlook darkened.

“A weak yen pushes up import prices, weighing on profits at companies dependent on raw materials imports and household purchasing power,” Citi economist Kiichi Murashima famous. “The negative impacts of a weak yen may be larger than before given the penetration ratio of imports is on the rise.”

Reversing the robust yen pattern via large financial easing was certainly one of the key objectives of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s “Abenomics” stimulus insurance policies over his eight years in workplace to 2020. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is predicted to observe this technique.

Over that interval, the yen misplaced 50% in opposition to the greenback. However, export volumes remained principally unchanged, suggesting a weaker foreign money, whereas nonetheless useful for Japanese corporations overseas, has not essentially made the nation’s items extra enticing to international patrons.

1 / 4 of Japanese producers used offshore manufacturing in 2020, in contrast with 18% in 2010, in accordance with a survey by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry.

The 2011 earthquake and tsunami accelerated that pattern, swinging the commerce stability into deficit as exports slowed and imports of gasoline surged.

Exports now make up roughly 15% of Japan’s economic system as of 2020, the second smallest contribution amongst OECD nations after the United States and down from 17.5% in 2007.

In distinction, the client sector’s share of GDP has held regular at 53%, making the economic system extra susceptible to the surge in imported items costs attributable to a weaker yen.

Up till 2011, Japan would intervene closely to cease a robust yen from crimping the competitiveness of exports, however it has additionally on uncommon events stepped it cease the foreign money falling.

The final time Japan intervened to cease yen declines was 1998 throughout the Asian Financial Crisis when the greenback broke above 146 yen.

Analysts assume such a transfer is very unlikely this time, however some analysts see 125 yen as a potential line in the sand.

A Reuters’ survey of corporations earlier this month confirmed about third of respondents anticipated earnings to lower if yen weak point persists.

LESS BANG FOR YOUR YEN

Importantly for policymakers, a battered foreign money has sapped Japanese households’ buying energy, giving them much less for what they pay.

The yen’s dwindling worth has pushed up costs of brand-name imports starting from luxurious vehicles to costly watches to smartphones in addition to foodstuff akin to U.S. beef imports.

For instance, the worth of a new-model iPhone has tripled to 190,000 yen over the previous decade, equal to 60% of the common month-to-month wage in Japan. Over that interval, nonetheless, salaries have remained broadly unchanged.

While Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda maintains the deserves of yen declines nonetheless outweigh the downsides, such a view is not evenly shared.

“The current yen weakness is rather negative, undermining Japanese purchasing power in the long run,” stated a authorities supply with information of the matter, stressing the want to repair public debt and lift productiveness to make Japan extra aggressive.

Some central bankers have additionally acknowledged the problem.

“For major companies with operations overseas, a weak yen gives a significant boost to their profits,” BOJ board member Junko Nakagawa informed Bloomberg in an interview revealed on Friday. “On the other hand, a weak yen strains firms with domestic operations by pushing up import costs.”

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