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World NewsMohamed El-Erian pours cold water on calls for $100 oil

Mohamed El-Erian pours cold water on calls for $100 oil

Projections for oil costs to hit $100 per barrel overlook key questions over the way forward for demand, in line with Mohamed El-Erian, chief financial advisor at Allianz and chair of Gramercy Fund Management.

Both worldwide benchmark Brent crude and U.S. crude costs have spiked above $80 in current weeks as post-pandemic demand outstrips provide. Surging pure gasoline costs have additionally induced crises all over the world, most notably in Europe.

Speaking to CNBC’s Dan Murphy on the ADIPEC power convention in Abu Dhabi, El-Erian mentioned he agreed with earlier remarks by Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, CEO of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, that international markets had “sleepwalked” into the power disaster.

El-Erian mentioned two conditions had come to cross which might have been deemed unlikely if not unthinkable a 12 months in the past. Firstly, that demand would surge and provide can be unable to catch up, and secondly, that the expected power transition itself would pose challenges as a result of transition fuels will not be “amply available.”

Although noting that market watchers had not anticipated $80 per barrel oil costs originally of the 12 months, he dismissed recommendations that they may high $100.

“If you were to focus only on the supply side, you could get to oil at $100, because there has been underinvestment in the industry in general, and demand will stay robust,” El-Erian mentioned.

“But if you look at what is happening on the demand side, there you get some questions. Demand is robust today but will it be robust in six months’ time? There is really big questions in terms of demand destruction — people buying less because prices are higher — and in terms of whether policy becomes contractionary or not.”

OPEC and its oil-producing allies agreed earlier this month to keep up its present output ranges, opting to not loosen the faucets within the face of oil costs at multi-year highs and calls from Washington for measures to chill the market.

While the prospect of additional sharp rises to oil costs does pose a threat to the worldwide financial restoration, El-Erian argued that it was fairly far down the listing of dangers, essentially the most outstanding of which is a “miscalculation in inflation” from central banks.


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